Like A Homing Pigeon, Bird Flu Is Coming Back

The virulent bird flu virus H5N1 might be on the verge of triggering a devastating pandemic, like it did in 1997. The canarys in the coalmine are actually minks, in Spain, which succombed to H5N1 last October. USDA recorded 110 outbreaks in other mammals in 2022-2023. Will it reach pandemic status in either poultry or people? At this point, nobody knowns for sure, but it may be wise to prepare for the worst.

More:

“Tracking the bird flu, experts see a familiar threat — and a virus whose course is hard to predict,” Helen Branswell, STAT

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Image Disclaimer:This blog post is not intended to substitute for the advice of qualified physicians, virologists, epidemiologists, airline reservation clerks, ornithologists, pharmacists, travel agents, or licensed health, veterinary, and aviation professionals. Contact your health care provider if you suspect you have a medical problem, buy only AMA-certified poultry feed, and confirm departure time before going to the airport.

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Mask-Wearing Cuts Covid by 53%

Florence Nightingale, masked, after H. M. Bonham-Carter

A global research study published in BMJ shows that wearing facemasks is the most effective non-pharmaceutical measure reducing COVID-19 incidence and fatalities:

“Mask-wearing is the single most effective public health measure at tackling Covid, reducing incidence by 53%, the first global study of its kind shows.

Vaccines … do not confer 100% protection, most countries have not vaccinated everyone, and it is not yet known if jabs will prevent future transmission of emerging coronavirus variants.”

“Results from more than 30 studies from around the world were analysed in detail, showing a statistically significant 53% reduction in the incidence of Covid with mask wearing and a 25% reduction with physical distancing.”

— “Mask-wearing cuts Covid incidence by 53%, says global study,” Andrew Gregory, The Guardian

Related:

“As GOP Fights Mask and Vaccine Mandates, Florida Takes the Lead,” Patricia Mazzei, New York Times, via Yahoo News

“Mixed feelings as D.C. lifts mask mandate,” Chelsea Cirruzzo, Paige Hopkins, Cuneyt Dil, Axios

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Image (“Florence Nightingale masked, after a lithograph by H. M. Bonham-Carter”) by Mike Licht. Download a copy here. Creative Commons license; credit Mike Licht, NotionsCapital.com

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Disease Tracing in 1854

Using data analysis and interviews, Dr. John Snow figured out how a cholera outbreak was speading in mid-nineteenth century London. A Vox video by Phil Edwards.

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How COVID-19 Swept Across America

See in one minute how Covid-19 has torn across the U.S. since March in this one-minute video developed by Microsoft AI for Health, Brown School of Public Health, and Harvard Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics.

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Masks Work

Florence Nightingale masked, after H. M. Bonham-Carter

Face masks help contain the spread of COVID-19 better than you think. Henry Reich does the math:

Contact Tracing

Contact tracing can help stem the spread of COVID-19.

More:

“How Do You Do Contact Tracing? Poor Countries Have Plenty Of Advice.” Jason Beaubien, NPR News

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COVID-19: An Important Message

Important Public Health Announcement: “Flatten the Curve” does not mean “Wear Spanx.”

More:

“Flattening the Coronavirus Curve,” Siobhan Roberts, New York Times

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New Diseases Come In From the Wild

COVID-19 was bound to happen. A Vox video.

Related:

“From Bats to Human Lungs, the Evolution of a Coronavirus,” Carolyn Kormann, The New Yorker

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Mike Pence, Coronavirus Czar

President Trump has named Vice President Mike Pence to lead his administration’s fight against the Coronavirus epidemic. Mr. Pence gained extensive medical experience during his stint as Indiana governor, when his Medicaid “expansion” cut health coverage for thousands. His response to the state’s HIV epidemic was to “go home and pray on it,” a policy that caused HIV deaths to spike. A longtime critic of science-based policy, he denied that smoking causes cancer while running for Congress in 2000.

Since joining the Trump administration Mike Pence has filled the federal health establishment with Indiana cronies like former pharmaceutical lobbyist and drug company exec Alex Azar, now Secretary of Health and Human Services, who tripled the price of insulin when he headed Indianapolis-based Eli Lilly. In congressional testimony last Wednesday Mr. Azar would not guarantee that any coronavirus vaccine would be affordable.

More:

“Trump Put Mike Pence In Charge Of The Coronavirus Response. Public Health Experts Aren’t Having It.” Brianna Sacks, BuzzFeed

“Let’s Revisit Coronavirus Czar Mike Pence’s History on Public Health Initiatives,” Shannon Palus, Slate

“Mike Pence was criticized for his handling of Indiana’s HIV outbreak. He will lead the U.S. coronavirus response.” Washington Post

“Mike Pence ‘not up to task’ of leading US coronavirus response, say experts,” Adam Gabbatt, The Guardian

Uh-Oh:

“Was Mike Pence exposed to coronavirus?” Kathryn Krawczyk, The Week

“Student Quarantined Days After Classmates Shook Mike Pence’s Hand, Report Says,” Jamie Ross, Daily Beast

Updates:

“Trump wanted, and got, a coronavirus lead who would give politics primary consideration,” Philip Bump, Washington Post

“Pence Will Control All Coronavirus Messaging From Health Officials,” Michael D. Shear and Maggie Haberman, New York Times

“Coronavirus: Pence defends Trump Jr claim Democrats want ‘millions’ to die,” Martin Pengelly and Amanda Holpuch, The Guardian

“HHS Secretary Azar: ‘I’m still chairman of the task force’ on coronavirus after Trump says Pence is leading response,” Caroline Kelly, CNN

“Trump backers see a coronavirus conspiracy,” Ben Schreckinger and Alice Miranda Ollstein, Politico

“Mick Mulvaney: Media Is Exaggerating Coronavirus Coverage to ‘Bring Down the President,’” Pilar Melendez, Daily Beast

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Larry Kudlow Leads Trump Administration Coronavirus Fight

The Trump Administration’s rapid response to the Coronavirus threat was led by National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow, who announced on Tuesday that the COVID-19 epidemic has been “contained” in the United States. “We have contained this, I won’t say airtight but pretty close to airtight,” he diagnosed on CNBC. Mr. Kudlow’s concern, like that of his master, Donald Trump, was with one major disease symptom, a severe decline in the Dow Jones Index.

Larry Kudlow, while not a physician, is as qualified to advise on the disease epidemic as he is to be National Economic Council Director. He isn’t an economist either, and his financial prognoses are consistently wrong. In the case of the COVID-19 epidemic, epidemiologists at the CDC warn that its spread in the US is imminent. “It’s not so much a question of if this will happen anymore but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness,”said National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases Director Dr. Nancy Messonnier.